Viewpoint by Touré: Why Obama Will Win Re-Election

But a close election could leave the U.S. more divided than ever

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Joe Raedle / Getty Images

President Obama speaks during a campaign rally at the Delray Beach Tennis Center on October 23, 2012 in Delray Beach, Fl.

Yes, I am extremely nervous about the election. With less than two weeks to go we are in a virtual tie in the poll of polls in an election where there are massive ideological differences between the candidates. What’s on the line is the future of health care, a woman’s right to choose, tax fairness, the social safety net, who gets credit for the economic recovery that seems to be around the corner, whether or not we go to war with Iran and the makeup of the Supreme Court for the next generation.

The specter of race hangs over all of this: will the first black president be wrongly deemed a failure, as the majority of one-term presidents are? I already find myself being told he’s accomplished nothing despite preventing a depression, passing historic health care legislation, concluding the war in Iraq, ending Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and leading the mission that killed Osama bin Laden. I do not want him to live on as conservative shorthand for a bad presidency with blackness as the unspoken asterisk somehow proving the point. And more, Romney’s trailing so badly with blacks and Latinos that for him to win would require an historic showing among whites, and what would be the future for black and brown people under a president who owes them nothing? Fortunately there are many factors that allow me to sleep at night, because they lead me to think Obama will win on November 6.

(MORE: Will Blacks Vote For Obama “Because He’s Black”?)

The national snapshot derived from that avalanche of polls has, I and others think, outgrown their usefulness in assessing the campaign because Romney’s big lead in the South (16 points in a recent Washington Post/ABC poll) pumps up his national numbers more than it helps his electoral college showing. He has what many are calling a “map problem.” Obama has an advantage in every other region and his lead in Ohio, the ultimate bellwether, has remained, as has his lead in Wisconsin, which has gone democratic in the last six elections. If the president wins Ohio and Wisconsin, the race is over. Iowa is also leaning toward Obama and has gone democratic in four of the last five elections.

(MORE: TIME Poll: Obama Leads By 5 in Ohio Poll)

But Ohio is the ultimate prize — the state that has gone with the winner in every election since 1964. The state has an unemployment rate below the national average, as do Wisconsin and Iowa. On Saturday the largest newspaper in Ohio, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which has endorsed the winner in all but two elections since 1964,  endorsed Obama. (They endorsed Ford in 1976 and endorsed no one in 2004.) The endorsement was not enthusiastic, and they admitted they were “sorely tempted to endorse Romney” and it’s not hard to see that air of a reluctant rehire in many voters. Many feel he has not done a great job and they want change, but they like him and feel he deserves another chance. I see it as a “take back the husband you’ve had doubts about” election. Women in particular are apt to hang on to a president. Nate Silver notes that historically women “seem more inclined than men to give the incumbent party another chance.” This is encouraging given Obama’s lead among women voters who make up 54% of the electorate.

(MORE: Women Voters Won The Second Presidential Debate)

No serious watcher expects anything but a close election where maybe as little as two points separate the popular vote totals. Some think we may be headed for the popular vote and the electoral college to disagree. Even if that doesn’t happen, I fear that in a polarized environment following an election filled with rancor conducted at a fever pitch and ending in bitterness, that we could be headed for a nation that’s even more divided, no matter who wins. A nation where half of the country feels free to challenge the legitimacy of the president. Obama won by six points in 2008 — a massive win — and has still been dogged by birtherism, GOP obstruction and a widespread lack of respect which stems from the deeply partisan polarization of America today. A close election could deepen the bitterness felt by the losing side, leaving us more divided than ever.

MORE: The Magical Negro Falls to Earth

14 comments
curt3rd
curt3rd

This website wont let me reply to comments.  Is there somethng wrong with the site or are libs scared of hearing what people other than themselves have to say?

markyramonego
markyramonego

in Michelle Obama's blog: http://www.nomadicexperiences.com/ she writes about the circumstances and reasons why her husband will wins his 2nd term and will eventually became America's Greatest President of all-time.

Danyz
Danyz like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Well dang, I mean, even if President Obama's only achievment was saving the nation from a devastating depression, he has to go down as one of the top ten presidents ever. 

rstm1348
rstm1348 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

President Obama is not a failure. He is the best president US has ever had. I cannot sleep thinking people like Romney and Ryan are this close to be leaders of the free world. that's realy scary thought.

UnificationBoard
UnificationBoard

@rstm1348 You must be a racist, and just don't want a white man in the White House. 

I'm kidding, of course, in your case. But I'm beyond sick of people like Toure' trying to inject racism into every legitimate policy disagreement someone may have with President Obama. 

sucorazon20101
sucorazon20101 like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

Romney is a liar !!

He has 4 positions on every topic, depending on his audience !!

Anybody can balance books !!

But if it means killing 50% of its citizens, I am sure only someone disconnected as Romney can do it.

Obama is a thoughtful person, and a real man.

He has seen life at the bottom.

He did not get nothing from his father, but has made a positive difference to people in the US .

Romney got millions from his father, but has only hurt people and kicked people off jobs !!

The choice is clear, but a lot of racist folks will not vote for Obama.

And if the unthinkable happens, a presidency under Mitt Romney will destroy America because Mitt Romney is sell out !!

nz8ntf
nz8ntf

Father of Dead SEAL Blasts Obama White House: “They Murdered My Son”October 26, 2012 By Daniel Greenfield 6 Comments48Print This PostWe know now that former former Navy SEALs Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty disobeyed orders and left a CIA safe house to try and save those at the consulate.And once there they fought a desperate fight, evacuating the consulate employees and “for over two hours they were able to fight back against approximately 200 al-Qaeda terrorists”. Numerous calls were issued for help and went unanswered.

JameyWilliams
JameyWilliams like.author.displayName 1 Like

Could you at least try to sound somewhat unbiased. Your introduction is nothing more than liberal, socialistic word-vomit. If you have a point, make it clear without forcing your opinion on your reader or at least label your piece as grossly opinionated. Also, the race card is becoming absolutely absurd. Positing that someone will see Obama as a failure because of his race is amazingly offensive. President Obama has been a failure because of his policies and because of the struggle of our times. He's a good man, with great hopes for America. However, his ideas to achieve those hopes don't work and he's a bad president. His ethnicity has nothing to do with it. I would love to have another black president like Herman Cain, Condoleezza Rice, David Palmer ;) But seriously, try to be neutral enough to be read.

rstm1348
rstm1348 like.author.displayName 1 Like

Well the fact is Obama has fially brining this country out of ressession. his presidency is a success not a failure. Republicans will ruin this country in they get a chance. But they will not win because they have been alienating the ever growin brown and black population. the 47% that romney doesn't care about will not vote for him.

FoundStar
FoundStar like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Herman Cain??!!! Now i know you are an idiot....

ThyGeekgoddessBlackwell
ThyGeekgoddessBlackwell like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

@JameyWilliams Well, it sounds like you THINK you area a REPUBLICan.

Well, you're not, Dixiecrat...sorry to inform you.  You are a traitor to your party, veterans and this country.  And the sorry excuse about race cards is pathetically obvious on YOUR part, because you are too bigoted to see that you're threatened by a HYPHENATEDD-American's intelligence.  The REAL GOP was LIBERAL and supported UNIONS.  Deal with your ignorance, we the Thinking-Americans are sick of TOLERATING your ignorance.

http://i.imgur.com/mMRqX.png

ashbee
ashbee like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

@JameyWilliams The title of this article is, "Viewpoint: Why Obama Will Win Re-Election"... keyword VIEWPOINT. This isn't an academic, unbiased article but rather an opinion piece where there is no neutrality. The fact that you read this as socialistic is a big eyeroll in my biased opinion. OBAMA!